068
fxus63 kdtx 221908
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
308 pm edt fri may 22 2026
.key messages...
- rain returns tomorrow morning. locally heavy rainfall around an
inch or greater is possible from monroe to port huron.
- warming trend next week with temperatures back to normal values.
&&
.discussion...
upper ridging and western extension of the canadian surface high
pressure will maintain dry conditions through remainder of the today
period. soundings showing some mixing into 25-30 knots within the
easterly low level flow through the afternoon, which should keep
gust potential to around 25 knots. increasing gradient flow into
this evening will allow for winds to remain elevated into tonight.
increasing gradient will be associated with a southern stream wave
and low pressure system lifting towards the ohio river valley out of
the ark-la-tex. this system is expected to bring the next round of
likely rainfall to southeast michigan ramping up towards midnight
and beyond with increasing isentropic ascent ahead of the surface
low. lack of instability and steep lapse rates will preclude mention
of thunderstorms for most of the area aside from the port huron to
monroe corridor. a favorable zone of 850-700mb fgen lifts across the
area tonight through tomorrow morning with pwats climbing to near or
around 1.50 inches. this will support a swath of higher localized
rainfall amounts exceeding an inch by the end of tomorrow, which is
also tied to the area of low thunder potential. there remains some
solutions with this higher swath holding just to the east in canada.
still a high chance for average amounts of 0.25 to 0.75 inches
across the cwa. the general track of the low targets still targets
the port huron to monroe corridor with higher end potential.
the surface low passes right through southeast michigan tomorrow
afternoon and evening. rainfall chances will gradually decrease with
its progression later in the day as best forcing is drawn northward.
winds will remain elevated through tomorrow afternoon until weaker
winds prevail and flow flips westerly in the wake of the low by
tomorrow night. there will a brief break in precipitation sunday
morning before rain chances increase again sunday afternoon as a
secondary wave and front move through. nbm temps on sunday likely
too high and probably more towards more normal values around 70
degrees given the rain chances, cloud cover, and weaker thermal
advection.
high pressure spreads across the region bringing a period of drier
weather early to mid week with a better signal for above normal
temperatures with upper 70s to low-mid 80s. troughing across eastern
canada during this time does offer some glancing shortwaves that
could produce some chances for rain. at this time, chances will be
low until there is higher confidence in timing and occurrence.
&&
.marine...
strong high pressure is building over eastern canada this evening as
low pressure lifts up from the ohio valley tonight. this will
further increase the easterly pressure gradient, allowing winds to
gust to 25 to 30 knots into saturday. small craft advisories are in
effect for all nearshore waters.
the low pressure system will also bring widespread rain showers and
a chance of thunderstorms to the central great lakes tonight and
saturday. the low will weaken and dissipate late saturday into
saturday night over lake huron, leading to lighter winds for the
second half of the weekend. however, another upper-level disturbance
will bring a good chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms over
lake erie and lake st. clair on sunday.
high pressure returns monday and slips east into the mid-atlantic
states on tuesday, maintaining generally light winds.
&&
.hydrology...
a round of steady soaking rainfall is forecast to spread across
southeast mi from south to north tomorrow morning as low pressure
lifts across the ohio valley and eventually through southeast
michigan. forecast rainfall totals range generally between a quarter
inch and three quarter inch during this event. locally higher
rainfall totals of an inch or greater are possible from monroe to
port huron. hourly rainfall rates on the order of a tenth to one
quarter of an inch per hour are expected. overall dry conditions for
much of the area over the past 30 days suggests the potential for
flooding is low, aside from typical isolated flood prone locations
in the urban areas.
&&
.prev discussion...
issued at 204 pm edt fri may 22 2026
aviation...
area of low pressure lifting north through the ohio valley this
evening, will pass over the detroit area on saturday. this will lead
to deteriorating conditions tonight through saturday as the low
ushers a moist airmass into the region. vfr cigs today will fall to
mvfr tonight and ifr by morning. with the center of the low passing
through the first half of the day, low vsbys and cigs will linger
through the afternoon. showers will also accompany the low lifting
north through the area slowly overnight. a period of moderate rain
will be possible during the morning hours.
d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms anticipated for the current
forecast period.
dtw threshold probabilities...
* low for ceilings at or below 5000ft through the afternoon, high
by this evening through saturday.
* low for ceilings and visibilities to fall to 200ft or 1/2sm
saturday.
&&
.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...beach hazards statement through saturday afternoon for miz048.
beach hazards statement through saturday morning for miz083.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt saturday for lhz422.
small craft advisory until 4 am edt sunday for lhz421-441>443.
lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt saturday for lcz460.
michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 am edt saturday for lez444.
&&
$$
discussion...aa
marine.......sf
hydrology....aa
aviation.....drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.