358
fxus63 kdtx 211513
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1013 am est wed jan 21 2026
.key messages...
- winter weather advisory in effect until 1 pm wednesday. total snow
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with highest amounts between i-94
and i-69.
- chance of snow showers tonight and thursday, with additional
accumulations up to an inch.
- dangerously cold conditions friday into this weekend. minimum wind
chill below -10f expected friday, saturday, and sunday morning.
&&
.update...
center of the clipper low pressure currently resides over southern
lake michigan and will lift northeast across the central portions of
lower mi through the early afternoon. this maintains light snow
across the bulk of se mi through the 17-18z timeframe with
additional accumulations up to around an inch possible, focused
north of i-94. areas south have seen the nose of mid-level dry air
attempt to push north of the state line, and while this likely won`t
continue given current radar returns over the michigan-indiana area,
it will lessen total accumulations. no major updates to the running
forecast with the expectation of an on-time expiration of the
current advisory (1pm) still looking on track.
system`s `warm` sector expands over the region this afternoon as the
low center vacates east with breezy southwest winds (gusting 20-
30mph) allowing temperatures to rise to around 30 with some lower
30s likely south of i-96/696. hi-res model runs this morning
continue to key in on enough residual low level moisture north of m-
59 to support scattered flurries/light snow showers as the primary
lobe of vorticity rounds the trough into lower mi. only minor
accumulations possible with any of these snow showers (a couple
tenths at most). main update was to nudge up pops to chance (25-40%)
across the northern half of the cwa through the evening. soundings
do advertise just enough saturation up into the dgz to support
sufficient ice nuclei to greatly limit/prevent freezing drizzle
development.
&&
.prev discussion...
issued at 641 am est wed jan 21 2026
aviation...
active stretch of weather across the region through tonight.
initially we have a warm front lifting into se mi ahead of a low
approaching southern lake mi. this is resulting in widespread mvfr
cigs with ifr vsbys in the heavier snow showers. best moisture exits
the area around 15z with lingering light snow around, mainly across
the northern sites. cold front will sweep through this afternoon
providing another window of possible moderate snow showers,
especially north of ptk. all the while, dry air is surging into the
area from the south which has been pushing vfr cigs into southern
mi. hires models are picking up on this drier air so will hedge
forecast to slightly more optimistic cigs this afternoon. yet
another cold front will sweep through tonight around 4-9z which will
again present a window for light snow accumulations with higher
chances for mbs and fnt. winds will start off out of the south
before turning to the southwest and gusting to 25 knots behind the
first front this afternoon. second front will bring in drier air and
turn winds more westerly.
for dtw...snow has spread across the region with the bulk of the
activity and accumulation occuring in the first few hours of the
forecast. trends were for drier air to ease into southern mi which
will shift snow totals a bit lower, closer to 2 inches. possibly
less if the trend north continues. light snow is possible again this
afternoon with the cold front pulling lake effect across the state
but currently the better snow looks to hold north.
dtw threshold probabilities...
* high for ceilings aob 5000 feet through today and tonight.
* high for precip type as snow through today and tonight.
prev discussion...
issued at 411 am est wed jan 21 2026
discussion...
a clipper system is arriving from the west early this morning,
bringing widespread light snowfall to the area through the morning
commute and into the midday period. this occurs as a mid-level
trough engages the baroclinic zone draped from the ohio valley into
the midwest, inducing a corridor of deep layer isentropic ascent as
the surface low forces the warm front northward. the snow will
continue blossoming in coverage over the next couple hours, peaking
between roughly 6 and 10 am, then begin to wane early afternoon as
the dry slot rides in aloft. global ensemble data has remained
relatively stable with regard to qpf, but have noted a slightly
drier and farther north trend in 00z hi-res guidance. signal is not
strong enough to deviate much from the prior messaging of 1 to 3
inches, which still looks like a good range for the bulk of the
area. did nudge accumulations down slightly for areas south of i-94
where potential is greatest for dry air to cut into rates this
morning. the higher end of the forecast range, and potentially up to
around 4 inches, is still targeted near the m-59 corridor. with
travel impacts likely through midday, no changes to the winter
weather advisory which will remain in effect until 1 pm.
warm advection on breezy southwest flow will cause temperatures to
rise from the mid teens this morning into a brief period of near 30
degrees, then the cold front passes through to send temps back into
the 20s this evening. low-level moisture lingering after the bulk of
the snowfall departs may be sufficient to produce pockets of drizzle
or flurries this afternoon, otherwise drier conditions are expected
in between waves. a trailing shortwave will then pass overhead late
this evening, sending in another cold front with a boost in low-
level moisture and forcing to bring a chance for snow showers
overnight. expect the bulk of these showers to focus north of m-59
where there is some signal for a brief but notable flare-up in
fgen/omega along the front, as well as slightly better moisture
availability. additional accumulations on the order of 0.5 to 1"
will be possible where showers track. potential is also there for
higher amounts if a band becomes briefly stationary, but this
carries low predictability.
fresh cold advection engages the lake effect to carry pockets of
snow showers or just flurries across the state on thursday amidst
blustery west flow keeping wind chill in the single digits. an
uptick in snow squall parameter highlights an environment supportive
of localized squall activity should any more robust showers emerge,
but the background rising height field offers little synoptic
support for this through the day. another arctic front arriving in
the evening signals slightly better support for snow shower activity.
in the wake of the thursday night front, temps tumble to the single
digits and stay locked there through the day friday as 850mb temps
plunge to near -30c. this value sits below the moving average of
daily min in the spc sounding archive and is within 5 degrees of the
all time record low. another blustery day with a persistent westerly
gradient on friday, keeping wind chill near -10f or below from
before dawn into the afternoon. arctic high pressure then builds in
from the west friday night, reducing the wind chill factor but
simultaneously allowing actual temp to crater well below zero early
saturday morning. if the current forecast verifies with highs in the
single digits and lows in the negative teens, this will be the
coldest period since january 2019. an expansive winter storm
impacting the southern conus this weekend will lift toward the
eastern seaboard on sunday, with some guidance extending its
moisture shield into the southern and eastern great lakes. for now,
a 30% chance pop is warranted.
marine...
large-scale troughing becomes reestablished over the central great
lakes today as an embedded disturbance delivers slightly milder
conditions and additional snowfall. while gradient winds will remain
elevated, small craft advisories are no longer needed as the
nearshore waters have all become ice covered. isolated gusts to
gales are possible thursday afternoon for portions of central and
southern lake huron as the next arctic front pushes through. since
persistent gales are not expected, no gale watch was issued at this
time. renewed freezing spray concerns arise for portions of the lake
huron open waters, thus heavy freezing spray warnings may be needed.
much colder conditions settle in behind the front by friday (and for
much of the weekend) providing additional periods of snowfall and
elevated northwest flow.
climate...
the record low max temps for friday, january 23rd.
detroit: 6 degrees (set in 1883)
flint: 6 degrees (set in 1959)
saginaw: 3 degrees (set in 1963)
the record low min temps for saturday, january 24th.
detroit: -13 degrees (set in 1963)
flint: -13 degrees (set in 1963)
saginaw: -13 degrees (set in 1963)
the record low max temps for saturday, january 24th.
detroit: 4 degrees (set in 1963)
flint: 5 degrees (set in 1963)
saginaw: 8 degrees (set in 1961)
&&
.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
lake huron...heavy freezing spray warning from 6 am thursday to 6 am est
saturday for lhz361>363-462>464.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&
$$
update.......kdk
aviation.....drk
discussion...tf
marine.......kgk
climate......tf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.