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fxus63 kdtx 230355
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1155 pm edt sun mar 22 2026
.key messages...
- areas of light rain today.
- colder and dry tonight and monday.
&&
.aviation...
se mi is now well to the north of the very active ohio valley
frontal zone that has left gusty north wind and colder air inbound
over the great lakes tonight. late evening satellite imagery shows
the colder air supporting extensive coverage of mvfr clouds from se
mi well north into northern ontario which hold through the morning.
there is also a chance for brief cloud breaks as ne wind backs
toward the nw and as gusts settle below 20 knots at times during the
late night. daytime instability then reinforces higher mvfr coverage
with a stray snow shower by afternoon. incoming 00z model soundings
show the diurnal component enhanced by steep boundary layer lapse
rate and convective depth up around 7500 ft. this gradually leads to
a cloud boost up to vfr below 5000 ft mid to late afternoon until
around sunset. midwest high pressure moves over lower mi to promote
a clearing trend monday night.
dtw threshold probabilities...
* high for ceiling at or below 5000 feet tonight and monday.
&&
.prev discussion...
issued at 316 pm edt sun mar 22 2026
discussion...
the initial cold front has pushed south of the state line today but
elevated portions of the front continue to flare up resulting in a
band of scattered showers that will drift south through the
remainder of the day. part of the mid level fgen is spurred from the
secondary cold front dropping through the state today while
additional forcing comes from a mid level wave rippling along the
front just to our south. model soundings no longer show the strong
lapse rates through the mid levels of the column over parts of
southern mi this afternoon so the risk of any elevated thunderstorms
will be shifted southward closer to the border. when the two main
850mb fgen bands phase near toledo there could be a brief window for
some thunder.
the mid/upper level trough centers over the region tonight while
high pressure starts building in at the surface. 850mb temps fall to
-5 to -10c by monday morning but low stratus looks to get locked in
for the night reducing the potential for temps to bottom out. still
expecting lows into the mid to upper 20s tonight. northerly flow and
the thermal trough will keep temps down on monday as well, even as
clouds try to scatter out during the day allowing some sun late.
highs will likely hold in the mid to upper 30s for most locations
with some lower 40s near the ohio border. when you add in the
northwesterly winds gusting into the teens, we`ll get wind chills
below 30 for most locations through the daytime hours.
another cold front tries to drop through the state on tuesday but
looks to stall and get washed out over northern lower as it runs up
against the high now drifting toward the mid atlantic coast. strong
ridging over the southern conus will help steadily build heights
over the region leading to mid week warm up with temps reaching into
the 60s across most of the area on thursday. low pressure developing
over the central plains will introduce low pops late wednesday as
energy starts exiting the low and tracking along a developing warm
front near southern mi. better chances come thursday night into
friday as the next upper level trough pushes through southern canada
and pulls the low across the region. the cold front will bring
another notable drop in temps for the end of the week.
marine...
cold front has pushed south of the area late this afternoon ushering
in north to north-northeast flow in its wake. given the fetch, the
southern half of lake huron will see the strongest wind gusts (20-
25kts) this evening into early monday with the rest of the region
holding closer to the 15-20kt range. onshore flow brings higher wave
action into the thumb nearshore waters warranting small craft
advisories through the first half of the day monday. strong high
pressure builds in behind the front by monday afternoon allowing
winds to lighten. high is quick to depart tuesday morning as a cold
front tied to northern ontario low pressure glances lake huron
daytime tuesday. the central great lakes reside along the fringe of
strong upper jet over the upper midwest/superior through midweek
offering periodic rain or rain-snow showers and generally modest
winds as low pressure systems pass just to our north.
&&
.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt monday for lhz421-441>443.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&
$$
aviation.....bt
discussion...drk
marine.......kdk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.