051
fxus63 kdtx 022339
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
639 pm est mon mar 2 2026
.key messages...
- potentially wet week ahead with several chances for rain in the
forecast.
- there is a slight chance for a couple periods of freezing rain
tuesday morning and tuesday night.
- warming trend this week with temperatures in the 40s on tuesday
and wednesday before 50s and 60s arrive thursday through the
weekend.
&&
.aviation...
the western expanse of high pressure centered over new england
maintains vfr into tonight with light se wind. cirrus tied to the
southern stream jet is arriving aloft and will thicken overnight,
but lower cloud over the ohio valley stays south of the stateline
until tuesday morning. this moisture migrates north after sunrise,
reaching the detroit terminals in the 12 to 15z time frame and
spreading up to the i-69 corridor by the afternoon. this will bring
likely mvfr ceilings and pockets of light drizzle/mist but
probability for precipitation is less than 30% across the area as
most of the moisture transport occurs across ohio. if precip does
develop, a brief period of freezing drizzle would be possible for
the detroit sites during the morning before temps rise above
freezing. light wind through the day tuesday.
for dtw...10% probability for freezing drizzle exists between 11 and
16z as temps rise from the upper 20s to lower 30s. otherwise, mvfr
ceilings become likely by late morning and persist into tuesday
evening.
dtw threshold probabilities...
* medium for ceilings at or below 5000 feet tuesday morning, high by
tuesday afternoon.
&&
.prev discussion...
issued at 330 pm est mon mar 2 2026
discussion...
western periphery of a strong high pressure system centered over new
england has supported cloudless skies across southern michigan as
return flow gradually starts to advect in warmer temperatures
derived from the ohio valley. this has allowed temperatures to peak
in the low to mid-30s which is still below normal, however, this
will be the start of progressively warmer temperatures that continue
through the week.
for tonight and overnight, mainly dry conditions are expected to
persist for most of se mi given the lack of forcing under zonal flow
aloft. the possible exception will be across the mi/oh border up
through the northern metro region as low level moisture gradually
fills in across southern michigan under weak isentropic ascent.
modeled soundings still do not fully saturate the shallow boundary
layer thus leading to low confidence for any precipitation, however,
there is some concern that south-southeast flow could pull in some
shallow moisture off of lake erie. if this were to materialize,
soundings do highlight freezing mist/freezing drizzle as the main
p-type give surface temperatures below freezing and a 4kft wedge of
temperatures above freezing aloft with a maxt of 2.6c, where the bulk
of the low-level saturation exists. given this, will maintain a 15%
chance for freezing drizzle through the mid to late morning hours,
with trace amounts of ice accumulation possible.
temperatures rise above freezing by the afternoon, ending all
freezing drizzle concerns. low-end chances (20-30%) for a rain
shower or two will hold through the remainder of the day favored
i-69 south given continued advancement of the low-level moisture and
position of the elevated frontal boundary. highs peak in the 40s.
zonal mid-level flow holds through wednesday as high pressure
briefly fills back in across the state. this bring dry conditions
through at least the first half of the day while return flow from
the quick moving system ushers in warmer temperatures, pushing highs
in the mid to upper 40s, possible low 50s through the interior of
the cwa. this will also act to push low-level moisture back through
southern michigan, bringing low-end chances for rain showers.
increasing confidence for rain enters thursday through friday
morning as a slow-moving mid-level wave travels through the central
plains and into the southern great lakes. this wave will induce a
weak low pressure system and will drive the surface frontal boundary
into southern michigan, bringing likely rain chances. a more active
period of weather continues as a secondary stronger wave from the
four corners progresses towards the great lakes over the weekend,
possibly phasing with a secondary northern stream wave. this will
work to bring like the warmest temperatures of the week with 850mb
temperatures aoa 10c and surface temperatures aoa 60 degrees.
trailing the warmer weather will be the arrival of the wave and low,
bringing rain and thunderstorm chances saturday.
marine...
high pressure over the northeast governs conditions across the
central great lakes this evening. this provides modest southerly
flow over lake huron, but weaker easterly winds across the southern
waterways. winds broadly diminish late tonight into tuesday while an
area of troughing extends eastward through the ohio valley.
potential exists for a bit of freezing drizzle across parts of lake
st. clair and western erie early tuesday morning before changing
over to liquid rain midday. split-flow eventually arises over the
region tuesday leading to light and variable winds by tuesday
evening and through the overnight hours. dry weather and light winds
return wednesday morning as high pressure briefly spills across
lower michigan. easterly winds rise by thursday as a rain producing
warm low lifts into the south while canadian high pressure builds
into james bay. the northern half of lake huron resides within the
strongest pressure gradient with sustained winds in excess of 20
knots, but gust delta is narrow given increasing low-level stability.
&&
.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&
$$
aviation.....tf
discussion...am
marine.......kgk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.