775
fxus63 kdtx 101756
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1256 pm est tue feb 10 2026
.key messages...
- relatively mild today with highs from the mid 30s to lower 40s.
- a little colder wednesday through friday but continued dry.
&&
.aviation...
widespread vfr skies to start this afternoon as winds have now
veered more westerly to around 10 knots with the inbound of the
front. post frontal mvfr ceilings continue to lag a bit with arrival
time, but should begin to move in towards this evening behind the
front. post frontal winds will also turn northwesterly and hold out
of the northwest through tonight. the colder northwest flow favors
mvfr ceilings holding through tonight into tomorrow. expecting an
uptick in northwest winds with gusts around 20 knots by tomorrow
afternoon.
dtw threshold probabilities...
* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less this afternoon, high by evening
through tonight.
&&
.prev discussion...
issued at 303 am est tue feb 10 2026
discussion...
regional radar and surface observations overnight have indicated
precip largely falling north of the forecast area, associated with a
region of deep layer moist isentropic ascent. while some of this
ascent may support a brief interval of snow/sleet across the
northern thumb, ceilings across the northern portions of the
forecast area remain quite high. this suggests low level dry air is
still a limiting factor for precip. exit region jet dynamics focused
across the northern great lakes this morning will drive a 925 to
850mb theta e plume across se mi in the 09z to 15z time frame. while
there is indication of some additional rounds of isentropic ascent
with this feature, model cross sections indicate the ascent to be
fairly shallow within a relatively stable profile. given this and
the bulk of ensemble guidance, a dry forecast will be maintained
today.
the ongoing precip across the northern lakes will be driven east by
a lead short wave impulse. this lead wave will be followed by a more
amplified wave tracking across lake superior and nrn ontario this
afternoon and will force a weak cold front across the forecast area
late morning/early afternoon. a respectable elevated warm layer is
now being advected into se mi within a 50+ knot 925mb southwest jet.
the residence time of this warm layer will be brief, as cold air
advection will already be underway this afternoon. there will
however be an opportunity for relatively mild air to infiltrate se mi
through both advection processes and diurnal mixing. in light the
snow pack across the region, there is a high variability within the
00z model suite and ensemble members as to how effectively mixing
will boost daytime highs. in light of current temps upstream well
into the 30s, highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s seem warranted
across most of the forecast area, generally in line with the latest
ecmwf ensemble members.
a more notable push of cold air will arrive tonight as the upper
wave tracks into ern ontario/srn quebec within strengthening
northwest winds across lower mi. model soundings indicate low level
lapse rates steepening within the cold air advection (as 850mb temps
drop toward -11c overnight). moisture depth remains limited on model
soundings. this will warrant just slight chance pops for light snow
showers or flurries tonight into wednesday. the airmass will not be
nearly cold as in recent weeks and with a boost from diurnal mixing
will warrant forecast highs from the upper 20s to lower 30s
wednesday. a period of dry weather remains forecast thursday into
saturday as high pressure dominates the great lakes region and the
upper jet remains positioned south of the state.
marine...
ongoing passage of a warm front will continue to produce widespread
snow across the greater portion of the northern great lakes,
including north and central lake huron. snow exits this afternoon as
the associated low pressure system progress from northern lake
superior into lake ontario through early wednesday morning.
passage of this system will push a cold front over the great lakes
late tonight into wednesday morning. close proximity to the low
pressure system strengthens the pressure gradient over lake huron
while intrusion of cold air reinforces steeper mixing depths. this
will bring the likely chance to see wind gusts that range between 30
to 35 knots across north and north-central lake huron from 00z wed
to 12z wed. opted to issue a gale warning as model trends have held
steady regarding gale potential. gales will be most probably across
north-central lake huron given the west flow that veer west-
northwest during the event.
high pressure to then build in over the region tomorrow into
thursday, which will bring lighter winds to the area through the
midweek period.
&&
.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est wednesday for
lhz361-362.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&
$$
aviation.....aa
discussion...sc
marine.......am
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.