174
fxus63 kdtx 110959
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
559 am edt tue aug 11 2026
.key messages...
- a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with
isolated storms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and
heavy rainfall. greater potential exists between i-94 and the ohio
border.
- the potential exists for showers and thunderstorms to develop both
wednesday and thursday.
- drier conditions develop friday and friday night.
- renewed chance of storms and heavy rainfall over the weekend.
&&
.aviation...
a stalled frontal boundary remains near the michigan/ohio border
today providing an initiation point for additional thunderstorm
activity, within the vicinity of the southern terminals. low
confidence in this more isolated activity lifting north through this
morning, compared to a convective system expected to arrive this
afternoon or evening. storms are currently crossing into the upper
midwest, and should grow in scale as they advance across lake
michigan and then lower michigan. timing and coverage leave more
questions than answers within the weakly forced environment, but
existing reservoir of instability should suffice in maintaining some
storm activity. maintained existing prob30, but timing adjustments
will likely be needed later in the day.
d21/dtw convection... scattered thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon-evening.
.dtw threshold probabilities...
* low to moderate for thunder this afternoon/evening.
* low for ceiling 5000 feet or less this morning.
&&
.prev discussion...
issued at 234 am edt tue aug 11 2026
discussion...
large scale pattern will remain governed by lower amplitude mid
level west-northwest featuring copious minor perturbations through
mid week period. low level frontal boundary effectively stalled near
the in/oh/mi state line marking the northern expanse of the deeper
instability reservoir that resides just to the south. pockets of
convective development may continue to manifest this morning in the
vicinity of the boundary, particularly as the low level jet folds
into the existing frontal slope. this will offer a lower probability
for mainly areas of south of i-94 to witness some early day
activity. otherwise, attention today squarely on behavior of the
convective episode now organizing across south dakota. backed by a
pronounced vort max and extremely receptive downstream environment,
general expectation remains for a forward propagating mcs to
accelerate into southern wi/northern il by midday. from there,
confidence in trajectory declines as a subset of the model solution
space shows preference toward a path into the deeper instability
parked to the south, while others do allow at least a portion of the
system to arrive locally during the mid afternoon to early evening
window. greater potential with southward extent /particularly
between the i-94 corridor and ohio border/, where adequate deep
layer shear and mlcape in excess of 2000 j/kg would support deeper
convective organization with an associated damaging wind gust risk.
conditional localized heavy rainfall threat also certainly exists.
high temperatures low to mid 80s again today.
stagnant large scale pattern ensures similar underlying
thermodynamic conditions exist both wednesday and thursday.
convective potential within this environment continues to carry
strong reliance on finding tangible forced ascent in the form of
additional shortwave energy to engage a profile featuring a standard
degree of diurnal destabilization for mid august. perusal of model
guidance establishes little confidence in offering a more targeted
opportunity. absent of this, expectation for generally dry
conditions to hold outside of perhaps a smaller scale response along
any lake breeze activity. outgoing forecast offers a more broad
brushed chance mention highlighting the peak heating window each
day.
high pressure briefly increases influence by friday beneath
confluence mid level northwest flow. this offers dry conditions to
finish the week, as deep layer subsidence exists within a slight
cooler and less humid conditions. shortwave upper ridge will roll
into the region friday night and linger into at least the first half
of the weekend. there is potential for a ridge running wave to lift
across the region over the weekend, but again carries low
predictable at this stage. temperatures over the weekend generally
remain seasonable.
marine...
a stalled front near the southern michigan border will continue to
be a focus for multiple rounds of thunderstorms over the next couple
days. this will mostly affect lake erie and lake st clair but there
is a chance of a few isolated showers farther north over southern
lake huron. a strong complex of storms is forecast to track from the
midwest across southern lake mi and toward the area this afternoon
which could present a severe wind threat. outside of any convection,
high pressure to the north of the front will provide generally light
and variable winds through mid week at 10 knots or less. later in
the week, a weakly organized area of low pressure becomes develops
across the northeast, followed by high pressure of 30.1 inches
gradually dropping southeast across the central and eastern great
lakes. this will favor an uptick in northwest winds thursday and
friday.
hydrology...
while the axis of heaviest rainfall associated with repeated rounds
of thunderstorms will remain to the south through tonight, there is
potential for heavier rainfall to develop should more organized
thunderstorms track into the area. the greater potential exists
generally south of i-96 this afternoon and evening. rainfall rates
in excess of one inch per hour will be possible, which could lead to
minor flooding in urban and poor drainage areas.
&&
.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&
$$
aviation.....kgk
discussion...mr
marine.......drk
hydrology....mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.