698
fxus63 kdtx 110743
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
343 am edt sun oct 11 2026
.key messages...
- light rain across southeastern half of the forecast area this
morning and early afternoon.
- brief period of dry weather monday.
- scattered shower and thunderstorm chances monday night-tuesday.
- more typical fall weather mid to late week.
&&
.discussion...
moisture associated with the remnants of isaias is lifting northward
into southeast michigan this morning. the high based cloud cover
will transition to thicker lower clouds through the morning and carry
through the bulk of the day. while the deeper gulf moisture holds
off to the south, rain showers will be supported through the morning
hours and be focused generally across the southeast half of the cwa.
rain amounts expected to be light. overcast skies for most of the
area will help keep daytime highs today down in the 60s, though parts
of the saginaw valley may make a run up into the low 70s as thicker
low clouds may not make it that far north as high clouds pull east
during the afternoon. remnant moisture will pull east throughout the
afternoon with a period of mid-upper level dry air filtering into
southeast michigan tonight into monday. forecast soundings show a
developing subsidence inversion tonight with dewpoints lingering in
the mid 50s will set the stage for at least some patchy fog
development prior to sunrise tomorrow morning.
a low amplitude ridge will take up a short residence time over
michigan tomorrow allowing for a dry period through the afternoon.
passing of the ridge axis early in the day will lead to increasing
southwest flow and associated warm advection with temperatures at
850mb climbing to around 15c. this will help daytime highs push into
the mid-upper 70s and possibly topping 80 degrees in some locations.
troughing develops over the intermountain west monday and tuesday
with downstream southwest flow increasing atop a frontal zone
stretching from the central plains into the midwest. as larger scale
ascent becomes more favorable with help from the increasing llj, it
will trigger a weak low pressure system along the frontal zone that
will move across the western great lakes states and drive a cold
front through the central great lakes on tuesday. this will bring a
stretch of increased precipitation chances monday night through
tuesday. general thunderstorms chances will exist during this time
within a modestly sheared (~40kts of 0-6km bulk shear) and weakly
unstable environment (mid-level lapse rates 6-7 c/km) ahead of the
approaching cold front.
cold air advection will ensue behind the front wednesday night
through thursday as 850mb temperatures drop by about 10c pulling
daytime highs back down towards mid-october averages. expect daytime
highs in the 60s with overnight lows in the 40s for the late half of
the work week. periodic chances for lake induced showers will be
possible wednesday to thursday morning associate with northerly flow
that will also cause higher coverage hanging around as a high
pressure tracks east across the northern lakes. canadian troughing
then develops late week a should bring a return of widespread
precipitation thursday night into friday with a much colder airmass
expected over the weekend.
&&
.marine...
remnants from hurricane isaias will move in through the ohio valley
this morning before departing into new england tonight. wind speeds
around 20 knots across lake huron will dwindle through the day as
this system exits. light rain showers will be possible across
southern lake huron and locations south as this system approaches
the southern great lakes. a ridge of high pressure will then briefly
fill in tomorrow which will back winds to the southwest. winds stay
light for most locations with localized higher gust potential around
20 knots for northern lake huron. a low pressure system and
subsequent cold front move through tuesday and wednesday, bringing
the next chance for rain and a low chance for isolated
thunderstorms.
&&
.prev discussion...
issued at 1132 pm edt sat oct 10 2026
aviation...
remnants from hurricane isaias will lift across the southern and
central appalachians tonight and sunday. the northwestern edge of
the rain shield is forecast to extend partially into se mi on
sunday. weakening of the ascent will only support light rain. the
combination of low level moisture influx and evaporational cooling
of the low levels will result in high probabilities for ifr and mvfr
ceilings during much of the day sunday, with the exception of mbs
which will remain more entrenched in the drier air. recent model
trends continue to indicate a rapid northward expansion of mvfr and
ifr cloud bases from southern ohio into metro detroit during the 08z
to 12z time frame. upstream observational trends continue to lag the
onset slightly, which continues to suggest holding timing of the ifr
conditions into metro detroit around 13z.
d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast during the period.
dtw threshold probabilities...
* high in ceilings aob 5000 feet sunday.
&&
.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 am edt early this morning for lhz441-
442.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&
$$
discussion...aa
marine.......am
aviation.....sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.