358
fxus63 kdtx 020645
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
245 am edt thu jul 2 2026
.key messages...
- an extreme heat warning remains in effect through this evening. it
will remain hot and humid on friday, with high temperatures in the
low to mid 90s.
- a marginal risk of isolated severe thunderstorms exists this
afternoon through tonight, and continues friday and saturday.
- increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms on friday,
continuing at times over the weekend. will bring an isolated flood
threat.
- a gradual cool down begins on saturday, with highs finally
dropping into the 80s by sunday.
&&
.discussion...
an extreme heat warning remains in effect through this evening,
though the northern half of the cwa may struggle to reach a 105 heat
index due to slightly lower temps and dew points. max temps
yesterday ended up in the mid to upper 90s, right on target, as the
00z dtx sounding indicated an 850 mb temp of 22 c. fortunately, some
drier low level air worked in from the south, dropping surface dew
pts into the upper 60s to lower 70s late in the day. this pocket of
drier air extending to 850 mb level will be exiting east this
morning as pseudo tropical moisture returns today. with the return
of higher surface dew pts (low-mid 70s) and moistening at 850 mb,
850 mb temps only progged to peak out around 21 c. thus, we are
looking at mostly mid 90s for high temperatures today (supported by
nam/ecm mos guidance). this holds especially true if convection
develops this afternoon, which remains a valid concern given the
level moisture advection and remnant outflow boundary from early
morning storms over northern lower michigan.
forecast soundings show cin getting eroded during the day or
dropping to minimal values. the preference is to carry at least
slight chance pop for thunderstorms this afternoon and especially
this evening. this is particularly true over the southern half of
the cwa, where steep mid level lapse rates persist, k indices push
into the 35-40 c along the southern michigan border, and upper level
pv advection works through western ohio. with mlcape in excess of
2000 j/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear in the 25-30 knot range, severe
storms are a distinct concern; the 00z rrfs indicates isolated
discrete storms late in the day.
the midwest storm breeding ground will remain active as multiple
shortwaves track out of the central plains this evening through
friday. as low level winds veer around from southwest to west this
evening/tonight, there is some concern for possible training of
storms along/close to the southern michigan border. however, plenty
of discrepancies remain regarding how fast upstream activity will
advance downstream and survive into southern lower michigan.
a high degree of uncertainty persists regarding temperatures and
timing of showers/thunderstorms on friday,though the nbm pops still
favors likely pops late in the day and evening. this delayed timing
would also allow heat indices to flirt with 105 degrees once again,
and will defer to the day shift to finalize heat headlines. later
timing would be more favorable for severe storms as well, but spc 2
outlook is marginal for now.
the pattern for the weekend looks wet as significant upper level
energy emerges from the rockies and a seasonably strong upper level
trough develops over the upper mississippi river valley by saturday.
the main question is will it advance east into the central great
lakes as two distinct pieces or as one main during the second half
of the weekend. canadian ensemble members favor a faster saturday
progression, showing 30-40% probability of a 24 hr qpf total >1"
over the detroit metro area, while the euro ensembles favor sunday.
either way, localized flooding will be a concern on either day.
&&
.marine...
high pressure remains nearly stationary over the southern
appalachians through the late week, maintaining a feed of a hot and
humid air into the great lakes. prevailing wind remains from the
south and southwest at 10 to 15 kt with gusts generally capped
around or below 20 kt due to higher stability over the relatively
cooler water. lake huron will reside near the edge of the cap which
offers potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms today.
isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible, capable of producing
wind gusts in excess of 50 kt and large hail. the cap migrates
farther south by friday which brings higher chances for storms to
the rest of the region. a cold front then sags south on saturday,
bringing a wind shift to the north and maintaining the potential for
scattered showers and storms.
&&
.climate...
.daily records for rest of the week...
detroit
record high record warm minimum
thu july 2 99 (2011) 76 (2018)
fri july 3 100 (1911) 78 (1911)
sat july 4 102 (2012) 79 (1921)
flint
record high record warm minimum
thu july 2 100 (1931) 73 (2002)
fri july 3 99 (1921) 73 (1983)
sat july 4 102 (1921) 76 (1999)
saginaw
record high record warm minimum
thu july 2 100 (1931) 73 (2002)
fri july 3 99 (1966) 76 (1974)
sat july 4 97 (2012) 75 (2012)
&&
.prev discussion...
issued at 1152 pm edt wed jul 1 2026
aviation...
outflow from thunderstorm activity across northern lower michigan is
slowly sagging south towards mbs late this evening. this may bring a
brief wind shift during the early morning hours at mbs. otherwise,
mostly clear skies overnight will give way to another sunny day with
ample heating and mixing on thursday. by about 16/18z, expect a
diurnal flareup of cumulus around 4-5kft with breezy southwest winds
yet again.
continued to maintain a dry forecast for all terminal, given the
uncertainty in thunderstorm development (timing and placement)
thursday afternoon through thursday night. most of the area looks to
become uncapped thursday afternoon, so it will be a matter of where
local forcing is in play. the going forecast is still too isolated
to warrant a prob30 or tempo mention for tsra, but may need to be
included in subsequent taf updates.
d21/dtw convection...there is an isolated thunderstorm potential for
the d21 airspace on thursday afternoon/night.
dtw threshold probabilities...
* very low for thunderstorm potential thursday afternoon/evening.
&&
.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt this evening for miz047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&
$$
discussion...sf
marine.......tf
climate......sf
aviation.....ja
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.