344
fxus63 kdtx 010446
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1146 pm est wed dec 31 2025
.key messages...
- windchills are expected to range in the single digits below zero
late tonight and thursday morning.
- seasonally cold weather will persist into the weekend. windchills
are expected to fluctuate between the single digits and teens above
zero.
- flurries or light snow chances are possible both saturday and
sunday nights.
&&
.aviation...
much drier conditions will exist overnight and thursday morning as
arctic air settles over the region. this will favor mainly clear
skies, but with the possibility for some brief patches of lake
stratus and associated flurries at times as moisture flux continues
off northern lake huron in northwest flow. some lingering gustiness
overnight to the northwest wind. moisture will increase again
thursday afternoon as flow becomes westerly, offering a higher
likelihood for vfr cloud and the possibility of flurries or very
light snow showers through the evening hours.
dtw threshold probabilities...
* low for ceiling aob 5000 feet thru thursday morning. high
thursday afternoon and evening.
&&
.prev discussion...
issued at 240 pm est wed dec 31 2025
wave of isentropic lift and midlevel moisture advection will track
across southeast michigan this afternoon and tonight. deep column
saturation is anticipated, leading to widespread light to moderate
snow across all of southeast michigan in the 19-02z time window.
respectable large scale dynamics for lift with an already strong
potential vorticity anomaly digging at an almost due equatorward
trajectory. conservation of vorticity and the influence of
increasing cyclonic curvature is forecasted to result in sharpening
925-850mb and 850-700mb frontogenesis particularly over the southern
half of the cwa after 21z. steepened lapse rates between 1.5-4.0 kft
agl on the north side of the cold front, and supersaturation with
respect to ice will lead to the potential for some brief snow
squalls. uvvs through the dgz and surface temperatures in the 20s
supports high lsrs and a powdery snow at better than 16:1. eps data
for once shows a very tightly clustered solution space with regards
to snow amounts with the control, mean, and interquartile range
around 1.0 to 1.5 inches at detroit, pontiac, flint and bad axe. a
short duration of forcing is expected to be the limiting factor in
this event. snow covered and slippery roadways are certainly
possible and any communication of impacts will be better handled by
short fused products.
cold advection will drop temperatures into the single digits late
tonight and daybreak thursday. mixed northwesterly flow of 10 to 20
mph is expected to result in windchills in the single digits below
zero. cold troughing will then be in place and largely remain the
influence over the region going into the weekend. the control run of
the ecmwf has been bullish with some very light qpf spreading into
lower michigan thursday evening/night. decent enough phased upper
level jet forcing which should be good for seeding, but forecast
soundings show very little frontal structure aloft. with 850mb
temperatures around -15c, would not be surprised if there are virga
returns on radar with some flurries. added flurries to the forecast
but given the lack of any good qpf signal in the models and to
maintain collaboration will not increase pops.
differential geopotential height rises with confluence aloft will
largely support ridging at the surface friday and this wekeend. with
that stated, fast northwest flow is projected to direct some weak
shortwave energy into the region at times. one shortwave will be
saturday night, but the wave should undergo significant dampening as
it becomes increasingly detached away from the exit region forcing.
light snow shower chances saturday night mainly north of the area.
the next potential shortwave that is advertised over the region
early monday will have a potential for more synoptic scale lift
support. quick look at plan view progs show a much better setup for
warm air advection in addition to upper level jet forcing. highs
monday and tuesday look to be at or slightly above normal.
marine...
weak clipper system currently dropping through lower mi at time of
discussion drags an arctic cold front through the central/southern
great lakes this evening-early tonight. winds flip to the northwest
post-front with a 2-3hr uptick in wind gusts towards 30-35kts in the
immediate wake before slightly diminishing back towards 25-30kts for
the night. given the marginal nature in duration of gusts reaching
35kt gales, have continued to hold off on any headline for lake
huron. arctic air filtering south however supports areas of heavy
freezing spray, particularly across the northern half of lake huron,
warranting the issuance of a heavy freezing spray warning for these
waters. troughing influence holds across the great lakes thursday
into friday resulting in persistent moderate (20-30kts) wnw winds.
in combination with an arctic airmass lingering overhead, freezing
spray lingers through the end of the week. additional weak clippers
round the trough into the region this weekend bringing light snow
chances however a still fairly diffuse gradient keeps winds sub
25kts.
prev discussion...
issued at 234 pm est wed dec 31 2025
&&
.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...heavy freezing spray warning until 10 am est thursday for lhz361-
362.
small craft advisory until 10 pm est thursday for lhz421-441.
small craft advisory until 10 am est thursday for lhz442-443.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&
$$
aviation.....mr
discussion...cb
marine.......kdk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.