478
fxus61 kcle 121112
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
712 am edt sun apr 12 2026
.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast with this update.
&&
.key messages...
1) unsettled weather pattern this week will result in multiple
chances for showers and thunderstorms.
2) above average temperatures return today and persist through
the week.
&&
.discussion...
key message 1...
surface low pressure pushing across the upper midwest today will
lift a warm front northeast through the local forecast area
today. simultaneously, a shortwave aloft will glide east across
lower michigan and the lower great lakes region. the majority of
the forecast area should remain dry today, but can`t rule out a
stray shower clipping lakeshore zones given the location of the
support aloft. any qpf from the showers will be minimal.
shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by monday as the
aforementioned low drags a cold front east across the region.
ahead of the cold front, the region will solidly be in the warm
sector which will yield mucape values of 400-700 j/kg. can`t
rule out the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to
develop, though spc continues to highlight our forecast area in
a general thunder (i.e. no severe threat) for monday. will
continue to monitor any future updates or adjustments to the
swody for that timeframe. in addition to shower/thunderstorm
chances, it will be breezy today and monday. southerly to
southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph are forecast to gust to
30-35 mph each afternoon.
a series of low pressure systems and surface boundaries will
linger across the great lakes and ohio valley regions through
the rest of this week. this will keep chance pops in the
forecast for the foreseeable future. heavy rainfall and the
potential for strong to severe storms both remain possible with
this forecast update. the timeframe of note will be midweek
where the best synoptic support and afternoon destabilization
exist. wpc has highlighted portions of northwest ohio in their
days 4 and 5 excessive rainfall outlook. given the progressive
nature of these systems, not expecting any major flooding
concerns at this point, even with the antecedent wet conditions
from recent rainfall.
key message 2...
as the warm front lifts northeast, high temperatures this
afternoon will rise into the 70s areawide. high temperatures in
the upper 70s to lower 80s will continue through this week.
overnight lows will also remain warm in the upper 50s to lower
60s each night.
&&
.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
vfr conditions in scattered to broken high clouds are expected
through about 06z monday before showers begin to move east into
nw oh. the showers will overspread most of the area through 12z
monday. non-vfr conditions are likely in lower
visibilities/ceilings in more persistent rain, although
confidence in the placement and timing of any ifr conditions
remains low at this point. winds will be out of the southeast at
10 knots or less for the first couple of hours of the forecast
period before becoming south/southwest and increasing to 10 to
20 knots near or shortly after 15z. gusts to 20 to 30 knots are
likely with the highest gusts closer to 30 knots expected at
ktol/kfdy. a strong low level jet will move over the region
after 00z tonight and expect a period of llws and perhaps a
period of lower surface gusts through early monday morning.
outlook...occasional non-vfr conditions are expected in periodic
showers and thunderstorms monday through thursday.
&&
.marine...
southeast winds at around 10 knots are expected this morning
before shifting to the southwest behind a warm front this
afternoon and increasing to 15 to 20 knots this evening through
monday. there may be periods where winds very briefly exceed 20
knots through monday afternoon, although offshore flow will
focus the higher waves into the open waters of the lake. with
that being said, winds may be just westerly enough to produce
waves just over 4 feet in the nearshore waters of the eastern
basin monday morning into monday afternoon and a brief small
craft advisory may be needed during that timeframe. winds will
diminish to about 10 knots monday night, however periods of
elevated winds will likely persist through thursday.
&&
.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...13
aviation...15
marine...15