849
fxus61 kcle 222301
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
701 pm edt sun mar 22 2026
.what has changed...
the likelihood of afternoon convection is decreasing due to
widespread cloud cover and lack of instability. as of now, it
appears that the best chance of severe weather will occur in the
southern part of the local area this evening, although it`s
possible that the majority of the strong to severe storms remain
to the south/southeast of the local area.
&&
.key messages...
1.) isolated to scattered strong to severe storms possible
primarily in the southern portion of the forecast area this
evening.
2.) variable temperatures expected for most of the week with
periodic precipitation chances occurring tonight and mid to late
week.
&&
.discussion...
key message 1...
a cold front will continue to move southeast across the local
area this afternoon. showers are likely along the cold front
this afternoon, although widespread cloud cover, dry air, and
lack of instability will likely hinder any thunderstorm
development. the best chance of storms will likely be along the
southeastern border or to the southeast of the local area, but
thunderstorms will likely hold off until later this evening.
confidence in convection is slightly higher for this evening,
although once again there`s still uncertainty in where storms
will initiate. showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
behind the cold front at around 8 pm this evening before
exiting to the southeast by midnight, however mid-level dry air
may once again inhibit convection development. there`s also a
chance that storms develop near the southeastern border of the
cwa and strengthen after exiting the cwa. the best instability
will likely be in the southern half of the local area, primarily
from u.s. route 30 south. there will be a sharp cutoff in shear
values close to the lakeshore, however 0-6km shear values of
30-40+ knots support storm mode of a more organized line or
supercells. at this point, instability will be elevated and
lapse rates are relatively high so large hail will be the
primary hazard, although surrounding upper air soundings suggest
that dry low-level air could produce a risk of
downbursts/damaging wind gusts. will need to keep a close eye on
mesoanalysis/satellite data over the next several hours and
will make adjustments to the forecast as needed. either way,
there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather along
and south of a line from roughly marion to warren, oh with a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) north from roughly findlay, oh to
meadville, pa (including cleveland). the best potential for
severe weather will be in the enhanced risk area to the
southeast of the forecast area.
key message 2...
cold air advection and lingering troughing over the lower great
lakes will result in low-end chances of light snow showers
across ne oh and nw pa late tonight through monday afternoon,
although accumulations beyond a dusting on grassy/elevated
surfaces are not expected. from there, dry weather is favored
monday night through early wednesday evening as high pressure
builds over the region. periodic showers are likely as the next
system approaches and crosses the region late wednesday through
thursday evening. a few thunderstorms are possible with cold
front passage on thursday or thursday night, but still quite a
bit of uncertainty with frontal passage timing and the
resulting precipitation chances. dry weather is favored for the
weekend.
temperatures will fluctuate quite a bit during the week with the
coldest high temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s
anticipated monday/friday and the warmest highs in the 60s and
lower 70s anticipated on thursday.
&&
.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
the main aviation concern and expectations for this 00z taf
update will be for variable flight categories this evening with
a trend downward from vfr to low end mvfr/ifr. scattered showers
will move in this evening. some thunderstorms are possible and
mentioned in the tafs at fdy, mfd, cak, and yng through 03z or
04z. ceilings will gradually lower this evening into the low end
mvfr or ifr. the best potential for ifr will be at cak, yng,
eri, cle, and mfd. ceilings will start to lift into mvfr monday
morning into the afternoon. some ceilings will scattered out
over nwoh by late in the taf period. winds will be northerly 10
to 15 knots with occasional gusts up to 25 knots during the taf
period.
outlook...non-vfr conditions possible wednesday into thursday
with scattered rain showers.
&&
.marine...
a cold front continues to slowly drift south across the are this
afternoon, allowing winds across lake erie to become northerly
at 10 to 20 knots. the strong winds remain isolated to the
western basin right now. as the cold front moves further south,
winds will gain more of a northwesterly component with winds up
to 20 knots spreading east across the central basin. this
gustier onshore flow will result in waves building to 3-5 feet
across the central basin late tonight into early monday morning.
as a result, a brief small craft advisory has been issued to
highlight this hazard.
as the parent low moves off the mid-atlantic coast on monday,
northwest winds will weaken to 10-15 knots. high pressure builds
over the region tuesday, shifting winds once again to be from
the south-southwest at 5-10 knots which will persist through
much of wednesday. another low pressure system is forecast to
move east through the region thursday into friday, increasing
winds to 15 to 20 knots once again. this period will need to be
monitored for any additional marine headlines.
&&
.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 am edt monday for lez144>146.
&&
$$
discussion...15
aviation...77
marine...04