069
fxus61 kcle 021832
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
232 pm edt sat may 2 2026
.what has changed...
frost and freeze headlines added for the cold overnight. slightly
stretched out the timing of the pops ending in the next couple of
hours.
&&
.key messages...
1) some improvements coming to the temperatures into monday.
2) strong frontal system midweek brings more rain to the area and
temperatures back down into the 50s and likely not drying out until
after thursday.
&&
.discussion...
key message 1...
frost/freeze expected tonight.
while the main upper trough bringing chilly and wet weather to the
region the past couple of days exits, high pressure moving west to
east south of the cwa will finally get east enough to bring a warm
advective pattern. 850mb temperatures that have been below zero will
creep above zero with low level warm air advection for monday and
tuesday, and will see temperature improvements each day,
accordingly. some low end shower activity is possible sunday night
in some short lived isentropic lift mainly at 290k. an upper level
wave brings shower/storm chances ahead of a strengthening frontal
system late monday into tuesday. could see temperatures in the
70s in places on monday.
key message 2...
ahead of the cold front, showers and storms to become more
numerous. as the front moves into the southern great lakes, forward
progress of the system will likely be slowed as waves of surface low
pressure develop along the front. this will serve to lengthen the
amount of time that the rain chances settle over the cwa as those
waves of low pressure keep the front from pushing eastward. high
pops will linger with the front through wednesday before finally
exiting, only to be followed by a trailing upper trough axis
thursday as broad low pressure aloft reclaims the great lakes.
temperatures back below normal and into the 50s for the end of the
week before finally showing slow improvement again into the
weekend.
&&
.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
variable conditions across the area early this afternoon, with a
trough axis pushing southeast across the area and continuing to
bring mvfr ceilings and light showers (mainly rain) across
portions of inland northern oh and inland northwestern pa,
including to taf sites such as mfd, cak, and yng. drier air is
filtering in behind this feature allowing a return to vfr, which
should then continue through the remainder of the taf period.
mainly northerly winds at 5-10 knot this afternoon will shift
southwest at <7 knots tonight, increasing to 10-15kt with gusts
to 25kt late morning/early afternoon on sunday.
outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms late monday through wednesday as a cold front
moves southeast across the area.
&&
.marine...
some lingering 2 footers out there early this afternoon after a
push of 10-15kt northerly winds this morning, but those are
decreasing with tranquil marine conditions taking over. west-
southwest winds increase modestly to 10-15kt overnight tonight,
trending a bit stronger (15-20kt) on sunday. winds may exceed
20kt at times sunday and especially sunday night, building 3-5
foot waves in the open waters. south-southwest winds briefly
slacken to 10-15kt during the day monday, increasing to 15-25kt
again monday night into tuesday ahead of an approaching cold
front. winds flip northerly behind the front late tuesday into
tuesday night, diminishing into wednesday. the impression is
that small craft advisories may be needed at times for stronger
southwest winds late sunday/sunday night, and again monday night
and tuesday through the frontal passage. any advisories would
be marginal and future shifts will evaluate the potential need.
&&
.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...frost advisory from 11 pm this evening to 9 am edt sunday for
ohz003-006>009-011-012-017-018-027-036-089.
freeze warning from 11 pm this evening to 9 am edt sunday for
ohz010-013-014-019>023-028>033-037-038-047.
pa...frost advisory from 11 pm this evening to 9 am edt sunday for
paz001.
freeze warning from 11 pm this evening to 9 am edt sunday for
paz002-003.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...26
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan