644
fxus61 kcle 101902
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
202 pm est tue feb 10 2026
.what has changed...
a period of freezing drizzle is possible across portions of nw
pa and possibly ne oh tonight so have adjusted the forecast to
introduce freezing drizzle potential. generally expect minimal
to minor impacts.
&&
.key messages...
1) a brief period of freezing drizzle is possible tonight before
lake effect snow showers develop across portions of the
snowbelt region of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania
late tonight through early thursday.
2) temperatures will trend towards and possibly slight above normal
values late week through the weekend.
&&
.discussion...
.key message 1...
a cold front will move across the local area this afternoon
which may allow some light rain showers to develop in eastern
zones. at this point, it looks like the lower levels will be
too dry for any appreciable rainfall. there may be a brief
period of freezing drizzle across nw pa and possibly ne oh
later tonight as temperatures fall to or below freezing behind
the cold front, however there`s a chance that precipitation
doesn`t occur at all until the better push of cold air arrives
and lake effect/enhanced snow develops after midnight. either
way, any ice accumulations shouldn`t amount to more than a trace
with locally higher accumulations as high as one hundredth of
an inch possible across the higher terrain of interior nw pa.
opted against any headlines given the short duration and less
impactful timing of freezing drizzle, but will keep an eye on
the forecast through this evening.
periods of scattered lake effect/enhanced snow showers are
likely across the typical snowbelt areas of ne oh/nw pa late
tonight through at least early thursday morning. generally
expect light snowfall rates with maximum 30 to 36 hour snowfall
totals of 2 to 5 inches likely across the higher terrain of
inland northwest pennsylvania and lesser amounts elsewhere. the
extended duration of snowfall will result in less impacts and
headlines aren`t expected at this time, although there may be
periods of snow-covered roadways and/or reduced visibility in
any heavier snow bands that develop.
.key message 2...
high pressure will return to the area by the end of the week and
guidance is trending drier for the weekend (although there`s
still at least a small chance of scattered rain/snow showers on
sunday). despite the change in the rainfall forecast, a warming
trend is expected friday through early next week with near normal
temperatures anticipated friday and above normal high temperatures
expected over the weekend and into early next week.
the gradually warming temperatures will result in a relatively
gradual thaw/melt in snowpack and river ice. while minor ice
jam issues cannot be ruled out over the weekend and especially
next week, the thaw should be gradual enough to preclude a
significant ice jam flooding risk. heavy rainfall is not
expected through early next week so the relatively dry weather
will help mitigate hydro issues.
&&
.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
vfr across the taf sites early this afternoon with widespread
deterioration to mvfr ceilings late this evening and overnight
as a cold front moves southeast through the area. some lake
enhanced snow showers may accompany the front, though confidence
in placement remains low. although mvfr vsbys appear more
likely, can`t rule out brief ifr vsby drops within any heavier snow
showers, especially at cle/cak/yng/eri early wednesday morning.
winds are generally out of the south to southwest early this
afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots.
winds will shift towards the west behind a cold front late this
evening and overnight and diminish to 10 to 12 knots. west wind
gusts of 20 to 25 knots may return late wednesday morning and
afternoon.
outlook...non-vfr likely in low ceilings wednesday night
through thursday. non-vfr may return in scattered rain and/or
snow showers on sunday.
&&
.marine...
lake erie remains mostly ice-covered, though recent satellite
imagery depicts several large cracks beginning to develop across the
central basin. winds will shift towards the west to northwest behind
a cold front tonight, 18 to 22 knots, which could contribute to
additional shifting of ice across lake erie. quieter marine
conditions are expected beginning thursday and should persist
through the weekend with offshore winds of generally 10 to 15
knots.
&&
.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...15
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn