268
fxus61 kcle 311131
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
731 am edt sat oct 31 2026
.what has changed...
there were no changes needed with this forecast update.
&&
.key messages...
1) high pressure will continue to influence the area into the start
of next week allowing for quiet weather and gradually warming
temperatures.
2) periodic showers are possible early next week before becoming
more widespread mid to late week.
&&
.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure has settled over the region and will continue to
influence the are into early next week as it slowly drift east.
temperatures through the period will start in the low to mid
60s today before gradually climbing into the 70s by tuesday.
overnight lows will follow a similar trend with lows tonight
falling into the mid 40s to low 50s before becoming more mild by
tuesday night in the mid to upper 50s. as this high drifts east
on monday and winds become more southerly, the increase in waa
couples with additional moisture nudging north will present the
potential for isolated, light showers monday and tuesday but not
expecting anything widespread. as a result, the majority of the
area will continue to remain dry through tuesday.
key message 2...
the dominant ridge that has influenced the area for the past
couple weeks will finally begin to breakdown as a deepening
upper level trough pushes south across the central us. this
trough will progress eastward, ultimately moving an associated
low pressure system into the region on wednesday and thursday.
this system will likely bring widespread precipitation and end
the prolonged period of no rainfall throughout the month of
october. there remains low confidence in the exact timing as it
diverges amongst models and model runs, but given the agreed
upon robustness of the system, confidence is increasing that
much of the area will see rainfall midweek. temperatures through
the end of the week will remain above normal.
&&
.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
no major changes to the tafs with the 12z package. mid-level
ceilings continue to enter from the west and will spread over
all of the terminals by this afternoon. winds will be generally
light and out of the east to southeast. winds at keri may be
more northerly this afternoon with high pressure moving through
nw pa.
outlook...non-vfr possible in rain on tuesday night into
wednesday.
&&
.marine...
high pressure over the area will allow for calm marine
conditions through monday. east/southeast winds around 10 knots
will allow for waves of 2 feet or less along the southern
lakeshore through monday. as the high pressure system shifts
east towards the mid-atlantic coast on tuesday, winds will gain
a more south-southwesterly flow and increase to 10-15 knots. by
midweek, a robust low pressure system is expected to push into
the area, ultimately bringing a cold front east across lake erie
on wednesday or thursday. confidence in timing remains low, but
given the increased gradient across the area with its passage,
winds will likely increase initially from the south to 15-25
knots before shifting to west-northwesterly behind the boundary.
there may be a marine headline needed for this system, but given
the lack of model consistency there is low confidence on when
that would be needed.
&&
.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...04
aviation...sefcovic
marine...04