000
fxus63 kiwx 290019
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
819 pm edt sun apr 28 2024
.key messages...
- showers and some thunderstorms will be possible this evening
into early monday and again monday afternoon with gusty winds
and heavy rain being the main threats.
- additional chances for showers and thunderstorms expected
during mid to late week period next week.
- warm with highs in the 70s through friday with 80s also
possible on thursday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 254 pm edt sun apr 28 2024
the upper low pressure system across the upper mississippi valley
moves northeast into canada this evening through monday night.
during which time, it`ll push its moisture stream into the forecast
area tonight. after an afternoon of mostly dry weather, chances for
rain are expected to increase west of in-31 as it moves east.
however, the surface convergence breaks down, instability only
achieves 500 j/kg of energy, and precipitation amounts in
models lower despite continued push of 1 to 1.5 inch pwats (1 to
3 sds above normal) along with 30 kts of effective shear into
the area. as such, will look to keep likely pops at best. then,
as the moisture stream slides east on monday, the area with the
best chance to see any stronger storms appears to be east of
in-15 and perhaps even as far east as east of i-69. the 7 c/km
mid level lapse rates depart the area before the afternoon, but
there is some maintenance of the 30 kts of effective shear and
500 j/kg mucape so perhaps a damaging wind gust could be had in
the moist environment. shear appears to have some tendency of
both boundary-parallel and -perpendicular flow owing to
individual cells and perhaps some linear segments as well. with
the mbe vectors going into the inner circle perhaps there could
be some back building or slow moving cells to allow for a heavy
rain allotment with its convective component. upper divergence
appears to return to southeast after 00z monday night, which
could also support the heavy rain component. the moisture stream
slides out of the area for tuesday allowing for a drier day
with sunshine to be observed, especially during the afternoon
for eastern areas. highs still reside in the 70s monday and
tuesday.
tuesday night into wednesday morning, a deepening progressive, but
slightly negatively tilted area of vorticity swings into the
northern great lakes, forcing dissipates as precipitation approaches
from the west, so will continue with the dry forecast for wednesday.
additional ridging continues to build in the southeast conus
wednesday through thursday night continuing the dry streak for
the area. it won`t be until friday that we have another chance
to see more rain as a cold front comes through. timing is in
question especially as it pertains to if we can receive a
convective component. next weekend looks cooler with highs in
the 60s. saturday leans drier than sunday, but sunday`s chance
for rain is on the low side as well.
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 736 pm edt sun apr 28 2024
mostly dry conditions will continue at least through 12z mon
however a few light showers ahead of the trough as it continues
to shift eastward tonight with another jet streak making its
way around the base of the trough. this and the approach of the
cold front should allow for an increase in speed convergence
and lift which will increase chances of rain showers with even a
few embedded storms and will then move eastward through the day
on monday. currently have rain showers with vcts for ksbn after
12z with showers after 18z mon for kfwa. did mention vcsh for
kfwa after 12z mon. felt less confident on the exact timing of
thunder for kfwa for later in the day so added as prob30. at
this time i have kept vfr conditions through the period, but
would not be surprised to have a short period or two with the
heavier showers/storms to get a temporary drop in cigs and vsby.
winds will also be gusty at times with gusts around 25-30 knots
possible through the period.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...roller
aviation...andersen