751
fxus63 kiwx 230522
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
122 am edt mon mar 23 2026
.key messages...
- highs drop into the 40s on monday but slowly recover back to
the 70s by thursday.
- after today, the next chance of rain is not until thursday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 120 pm edt sun mar 22 2026
surface cold front currently draped generally along the us-24
corridor and will continue to slowly push south through the evening.
not much has changed regarding the thunderstorm potential this
evening. strong inversion around 800-750mb is effectively capping
any convection with even cu being highly limited. a secondary
shortwave will approach the region this evening and associated
height falls/caa will eventually weaken and saturate this inversion
with some residual mucape given steep midlevel lapse rates.
tightening thermal gradient/fgen within and just below this unstable
layer will supporting expanding showers after 21z and perhaps a few
storms developing south of us-24 around 00z. however, sfc-850mb caa
will already be well underway across even our far se by this point
and a very stable profile below 850mb will significantly limit any
potential damaging winds or tornadoes. still can`t rule out some
small hail but mucape values are 500-1000 j/kg at best so even that
should be limited. better chances exist just outside our cwa. any
storms that do develop in our area will quickly exit and expect dry
conditions everywhere by 03-04z. lows tonight drop to around 30f in
strong caa with highs tomorrow holding in the 40s (even some
upper 30s near the lake).
temps slowly recover tue-thu as canadian surface high drifts across
the region and return flow gradually ramps up on the backside. a
very similar system is then expected on thu with a brief period of
strong waa pushing highs into the 70s followed by a quick drop back
to march reality for friday. rain and thunderstorms likely at some
point with the best chances probably along the cold front late thu
evening. still a lot of details to work out regarding exact precip
timing and amounts though. the severe threat currently appears
limited due to poor instability profiles but that could change as
details are narrowed down in the coming days. return to dry/quiet
weather anticipated for next weekend.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 121 am edt mon mar 23 2026
cold advection takes over tonight and an mvfr stratus layer hangs
tough into this morning as a result. with high pressure working into
the area, plenty of dry air takes over and expect vfr conditions to
prevail by midday at fwa and earlier at sbn.
with the northwest winds, sustained winds stay greater than 10 kts
and gusts will be stronger than 20 kts until the evening. the
approaching high pressure center allows trajectories to turn more
easterly after 00z tonight.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.
&&
$$
discussion...agd
aviation...roller