388
fxus63 kiwx 301846
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
246 pm edt thu oct 30 2025
.key messages...
- light rain will exit northwest ohio by late this afternoon.
- scattered lake effect rain showers are possible friday and
saturday, especially north of us-24.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 242 pm edt thu oct 30 2025
a long-running trough exists across the eastern conus as hurricane
melissa continues on its northeastward track toward the north
atlantic. an upper low over wv in the large scale trough continues
to provide rain to areas east of i-69 this afternoon up until around
21z as the main area of isentropic omega departs. behind this
upper low, another area of vorticity dives south of the area and
this swivels the low level trajectories to more northwesterly
and then westerly allowing caa over an anomalously warm lake mi.
still, delta ts are only marginally conducive to lake
enhancement at around 15 to 20c and moisture depths are not all
that tall, reaching around 1 km in depth friday morning. this
will allow times of light rain as a result. another upper low
moves across lake mi friday night into saturday morning and a
surface trough shows up just out ahead of it. this allows for
steeper moisture depths and delta t values increase to 20 to
25c, which point to a better lake enhancement setup. the upper
low from this setup pushes out saturday night and sunday morning
allowing an end to the lake effect rain. given cloud cover and
925 mb temps above zero friday and saturday, rain still appears
to be the predominant ptype. with the arrival of the caa, high
temps still appear to be able to get into the 50s, but low temps
overnight will trend from the mid 30s to mid 40s last night to
securely into the 30s friday night and around freezing saturday
night. (just a reminder that we are done with our growing
season) behind the departing upper low saturday night, sunday
looks dry and clouds break up through the day.
waa pushes into the area sunday night and early monday allowing a
quick rebound to push towards 60 degree highs and mid 30s to low 40s
lows. southwestern conus ridging pushes eastward allowing a pacific
jet to push into the southern great lakes. an upper low across
canada has a low chance to push light rain into the area, but at
this point, there is still some disagreement between models in how
far south the rain gets, which is probably tied to the strength of
the ridging and timing of arrival following a departing upper low
just before this. monday and tuesday look dry with surface high
pressure and mid level ridging pushing into the area.
&&
.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1245 pm edt thu oct 30 2025
scattered showers persist east of i-69, circling around an
area of low pressure centered over west virginia. kfwa should
not have much, if any, rain showers after 18z. as this low
starts to pull away from the ohio river valley, a tightening
pressure gradient will allow for gusty northwest winds this
afternoon and evening, with gusts to 25kts possible. there will
be a period of clearing from west to east this evening and
early overnight. after 06z friday, clouds return and converging
low level winds out of the northwest will allow for lake effect
rain showers to ramp up. vfr ceilings persist all day with
ceilings as low as 5000 ft. ksbn will be on the periphery of
these showers on friday; have added in a prob30 group for
showers from 12z to 18z tomorrow. winds out of the northwest
will also be breezy once again on friday with gusts of 20 to 25
kts possible area-wide.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt friday for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...roller
aviation...johnson